U.S. Olympic Marathon Results

I was able to watch the trials live through the NBC sports online application. It was 68 degrees at the start of the men's race and mid-upper 70's before the women finished. That's about 15-20 degrees too warm for ideal marathon conditions, but the argument can be made that we wanted to see who might be able to handle the heat of Rio.

The criterium course through the USC campus was strange. The course in general had lots of turns, but the campus was ridiculous, especially with a brick and concrete surface. These elements don't make for fast times. I loved the announcers for the race, the man with the British accent (Tim Hutchings) has done quite a bit of announcing for marathons and track and field events, he is good.

Surprisingly Cragg and Flanagan took the lead by 12 miles, quite early for a marathon on a hot day. My pick for medal contention, K. Taylor had been in the lead pack but dropped off the pace along with everyone else. By 21 miles you could Flanagan was really hurting. Linden and Kara Goucher were moving up and Flanagan's training partner was holding back trying to pace and encourage Flanagen to keep going, it suddenly became a very dramatic race. Cragg took off for the win with less than a mile to go, not wanting a fast closing Linden to beat her. The finish order was Cragg in 2:28:20, Linden 34 seconds back and in third place Shalane Flanagan 2:29:14. Goucher came in fourth. 2:30:24. My pick, Taylor, was sixth in 2:32:50. Veteran Deena Kastor was injured and couldn't start the race. So I had 2/3 correct, Linden and Flanagan.

The men's race had a substantial pack until 15-16 miles when Tyler Pennel took over, running a 4:47 17th mile to break things open. By mile 19, though, Meb and Galen Rupp had control and continued running sub 5 minute miles, leaving everyone else behind. Rupp cruised ahead of Meb in the 25th mile, looking like he had no trouble pushing the pace. Rupp ended up with an "easy" 2:11:11 (5:01 overall pace) with Meb 68 seconds behind. Jared Ward came up to take the third spot and earn a trip to Rio, running a 2:13. My third pick. Jeffrey Eggleston, from Greece, NY, came in at 2:17:19, 13th overall. Dathan Ritzenheim, my other pick, did not finish the race, so I was 1/3, only picking Meb correctly.

Marathon Olympic Trial Predictions

In an earlier blog I wrote about Runner's World predicting the top two likely finishers in Saturday's Olympic trial race (NBC, 1pm EST, also live streaming).

For the women they have Shalane Flanagan winning, Desiree Linden second (10th at Boston 2015, second in 2011, second at 2012 trials) and then a race between eight other women for the third spot. The favored contenders include; Deena Kastor (now 42, but a three-time qualifier and bronze medalist), Kara Goucher (two half-marathons last year in 1:11, but now 37), Sara Hall (wife of Olympian Ryan Hall) and Lauren Kleppin, who isn't a household name but ran a 2:28:48 at the L.A. marathon last year.

It's hard to know who's totally healthy, can take the heat of Los Angeles, and won't let nerves get to them, but I'm going with Shalane, Desiree and Kellyn Taylor (2:28pr, another relative unknown runner at the elite level).

A bit unbelievable, but the favored male is 40 year old Meb Keflezighi, winner of NYC 2009 and Boston 2014 who has a 2:08pr. Unbelievable because it seems we should have someone besides forty-year old Meb as the top contender. It was nice to read a short piece on Jeffrey Eggleston, from Rochester, NY who ran a 1:02 half-marathon in 2015 (Houston) and won the Chicago half-marathon in July on a windy day in 1:05. Jeff is listed with 8-1 odds of making the team.

I'm going with Meb, Dathan Ritzenhein (same as Runner's World) and Eggleston as the surprise third place finisher. I have to support the local runner.